The International Grains Council is continuing to revise its 2025-26 world supply estimates higher amid monster crops in many parts of the world.
In its latest monthly Grain Market Report on Thursday, the IGC revised its production forecast for total world grains (wheat and coarse grains) to a record-smashing 2.461 billion tonnes, up a hefty 31 million from the agency’s November estimate and 6% higher than 2024-25. (The IGC did not release a report in December).
It marks the fifth straight month the IGC has raised its total grains production estimate, with the January increase the largest to date, topping even the 27-million tonne hike in August.
Average yields are estimated up 5% year-over-year, while harvested area is expected to rise by 1%, delivering a wave of new supply across nearly all major grain categories, the IGC said. Corn and wheat are leading the production surge, with both crops expected to post bumper harvests. Barley and sorghum output is also forecast at multi-season highs, reinforcing the breadth of the global supply expansion.
Thanks mainly to a record crop in the US and an increase in China output, 2025-26 world corn production is seen at 1.313 billion tonnes this month, up from 1.298 billion in November and 1.238 billion a year earlier. World wheat production is estimated at 842 million tonnes, up from 830 million in November and 801 million the previous year, with larger crops in Canada and Argentina among others.
On the demand side, global grain consumption is projected to rise by 3% in 2025-26, a pace faster than the long-term average. Much of that growth is being driven by an anticipated rebound in feed use, reflecting expanding livestock and poultry production in several key regions. However, consumption growth is still expected to lag the pace of production increases.
As a result, global grain inventories are poised to rebuild sharply after three consecutive years of drawdowns. Total world grains ending stocks for 2025-26 are pegged at 634 million tonnes this month, up from 619 million in November and 8% higher year-over-year. If accurate, it would be the fastest rate of stock accumulation since 2016-17. Particularly steep gains are expected among major exporting countries, where combined carryover stocks are projected to increase 40% to approximately 181 million tonnes.
Trade volumes are also forecast to expand, supported by larger wheat and corn flows. Total global grain trade is projected at 446 million tonnes, up 5% from the previous season and above the long-term average.
Looking ahead, the IGC said it expects global wheat harvested area to decline slightly in 2026-27, with total production potentially falling by around 2%, assuming normal yields.
The IGC estimated 2025-26 world soybean production at 427 million tonnes this month, up 1 million from November but still 2 million below 2024-25. At 77 million tonnes, projected soybean ending stocks were unchanged from last month and down from 82 million a year earlier.
